Week Ahead | Adveritas Soars

28 November 2022

New Zealand Market Movers 

The New Zealand market (NZX 50 Index, 0.5%) advanced by half a percent on Friday. 

EROAD (-1.7%) fell after the release of its half year earnings. The company’s revenue increased from $48.0 million in the previous corresponding period to $85.4 million. The results noted that the company “remains on track for Normalised Revenue of between $154m – $164m” for the full year.  

Ryman Healthcare (+7.0%) pared some of its recent losses, and other aged care providers rose, including Summerset (+3.8%), Oceania (+1.3%), Arvida (+0.9%). This morning, the Government has announced its intention to boost aged-care nurses’ pay by $200 million a year in an attempt to close the wage gap with hospital-employed nurses. 

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (-0.3%) edged down slightly in the lead up to the release of its earnings for the six months to 30 September 2022 due tomorrow before the market opens. 

Australia Market Movers 

The Australian market (ASX 200 Index, +0.2%) climbed marginally higher on Friday, with Banking stocks one of the better performers. Commonwealth Bank (+1.1%) rose to within 1% of its record share price. Bank of Queensland (+1.3%) led Banks higher, while Westpac (+0.5%), NAB (+0.8%), and ANZ (0.7%) all advanced to a lesser degree. 

Europe Market Movers  

European markets (Stoxx 600 Index, 0.0%) closed flat on Friday. Sectors were mixed, with Oil and Gas (+0.8%) advancing while Mining (-0.6%) and Financial (-0.6%) both fell. Included in the latter, Credit Suisse (-6.6%) closed at new record low. 

US Market Movers 

US markets (S&P 500 Index 0.0%) were mixed with the S&P 500 falling immaterially (-0.03%) while the Dow Jones advanced 0.5% and the Nasdaq 100 fell by the same. 

Activision Blizzard (4.1%) dropped after reports the Federal Trade Commision (FTC) is likely to block its $69 billion acquisition by Microsoft (0.0%). 

On the economic front, it was reported that US shoppers spent a record $9.12 billion online securing Black Friday deals, the day after spending $5.29 billion online on Thanksgiving Day. Use of Buy Now Pay Later services increased by 78% compared to the previous week. Tomorow, Cyber Monday deals are expected to generate more than $11 billion in spending. 

This week’s economic data is heavy on Job reports, concluding with the Non Farm Payrolls data on Saturday 2.30am. 

Stock In Focus: Adveritas (AV1.ASX) 

Adveritas shares surged +32.9% on Friday, after confirming rumours it had received a conditional take-over offer at $0.11 per share from NASDAQ listed Integral Ad Science. The offering reiterating the value of the business and that it was trading quite cheaply for most of the year, 

The offer is highly conditional, subject to due diligence, regulatory and other conditions, with shareholders not required to action yet. Given the recent capital raise at $0.10 per share we see this offer being accepted quite low. 
We remain BUY rated on Adveritas on a medium to long-term view as the underlying business continues to grow strongly. Short-term there is potential upside from a more attractive offer however, if the offer is rejected we expect to see similar level of downside risk and volatility that we have seen in the recent past to continue over the near-term. 

What Markets will be Watching this Week (UTC +13) 

Monday 
NZ Kiwi Property Group earnings 

Tuesday 
NZ Fisher & Paykel Healthcare earnings 

EA Economic Sentiment NOV 

Wednesday 
EA Inflation Rate YoY November 

Thursday 
US ADP Employment Change November 

US JOLTS Job Openings October 

US Salesforce earnings 

EA Unemployment Rate October 

Friday 
US Personal Income MoM OCT 

Saturday 
US Non Farm Payrolls November 

The New Zealand market (NZX 50 Index, 0.5%) advanced by half a percent on Friday.  EROAD (-1.7%) fell after the release of its half year earnings. The company’s revenue increased from $48.0 million in the previous corresponding period to $85.4 million. The results noted that the company “remains on track for Normalised Revenue of between $154m - $164m" for the full year.   Ryman Healthcare (+7.0%) pared some of its recent losses, and other aged care providers rose, including Summerset (+3.8%), Oceania (+1.3%), Arvida (+0.9%). This morning, the Government has announced its intention to boost aged-care nurses’ pay by $200 million a year in an attempt to close the wage gap with hospital-employed nurses.

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