AIR NEW ZEALAND (AIR:NZ / AIZ:AX) SELL: Domestic Recovery Not Enough

4 September 2020

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Technical Summary: It has been a good 12 months for AIR. The stock bottomed out at near $1.70 per share back in October 2016 and since then it has “taken off”. The stock peaked at a 52 week high in July 2017 at $3.61 per share. Representing a gain of over 100% in 8 months. Since this time the stock has consolidated its upward momentum and is currently trading in a range between $3.10 and $3.60. The stock is approaching its recent support level and we would consider it bearish if it were to break this support. At this stage it appears that the stock has a bit of work to do before it becomes buyable again. From a technical perspective we would like to see a period of consolidation before the stock sets up for further upside or downside. The 5 year chart shows a consistent uptrend until the stock paid a massive annual dividend in 2016. The dividend amount came off the share price before the stock continued its sell off.

Our view is that a capital raise in next six month is imminent. With a market cap of $1.5bn and capital raise could be in the range of $500m-$600m, the probable capital raise price is going to be around the $1.00 mark.

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