Yield curve … about to uninvert… ?
Every time in history the yield curve has receded from inversion a recession has followed.
Bits and pieces…
Nothing new to add on Du Val, but was anybody surprised, really? Beware anyone living a “flashy” life online… smoke and mirrors, baby.
Blackpearl — Have to say, I was initially a doubting Thomas on this (and I still don’t really get it, entirely) but the metrics are great — $8.6mn of ARR and and gross margin of 73%…hats off to Nick and co for this…
AoFrio — Great piece from Rebecca on AOF, revenue up +27%… Link. Your humble commander in chief quoted. As I’ve been saying for a while, small caps like AOF are neglected by this market… use it or lose it.
Treasury Wine offloading Wolf Blass, Lindeman’s, Yellowglen, focusing more on premium (i.e. Penfolds)… that shift to “premiumisation” is real … don’t bother with the bottom dollar… go for the blue chip dollar…
Rereading — Drinking Less, Drinking Better — the classic Lindsell Train note that speaks to those points… Link.
Eating — Really loved Margot in Wellington … exactly what food should be …
Disney — Raising prices on most streaming plans. Good luck there … still like the co but not a fan of squeezing every last drop of consumer blood out…
Annals of local govt: “Book burning”
If it is wisdom you’re after, you’re going to spend a lot of time on your ass reading. – Charlie Munger
This is not a political column but every so often I see something come up from the brain trust of middle managers in government that makes it impossible for me not to comment. In this case I am talking about the Waitaki District Council, which is close to my heart because I am from Oamaru, the biggest town within Waitaki (when I say “big” I am saying “less than 20,000” — enormous!). The council has, as is typical of local government, mildly competent middle managers who probably wouldn’t make it as an associate at one of the brokers here. The council is currently going through a “transformation”. What is a transformation, you ask? It’s a PR term for “we are firing people and getting rid of services”. OK, fine — we all pay rates and we all need to make things “economic”. But what is most egregious about the Waitaki Council’s plan is its genius idea to transform the district’s libraries into “hubs”.
The almost hallucinatory press release is a doozy — hence why I am sharing it with you. It rivals Orwell’s 1984 in terms of doublespeak.
We’re opening things up. We’re not closing things down
We’re opening things up! Please.
We’re not lowering services in the library. It’s the opposite. We will be expanding services there. We recognise that the library has already become much more than just books. We believe there is even more potential here. Transformation is about unlocking this by transforming the library into a hub for our community. We’ll be making space for our staff, partners and community groups to come together – under one roof – to support our community.
At this point I was thinking about whether I should put my arm down the inskinerator. That could be more pleasurable. It gets better —
If we want to keep our district affordable, we need to work differently, use our spaces efficiently and share resources better. Our goal is to create a space where many people can come together to create new opportunities and deliver.
At this point you may be thinking — what does this even mean?
How will we do this? Transformation will help create a more versatile, cross-trained team of customer facing staff – including some of the current library staff – giving us more flexibility to cover absences and provide for continuity of services for our community. Council’s customer service team will be supported by staff with specialist skills and knowledge, including librarians.
Ah, transformation! Cross-trained! Some of the current staff (read: we’re firing some, too). Flexibility! But don’t worry, guys — it includes librarians!
When I was small I spent a lot of time at the library. It was my solace. I read a lot of books, I learned a lot about the world — it was a portal outside of provincial NZ. I loved the library. Charlie Munger is fond of saying that in his life he is met not one smart person who doesn’t read. It is the foundation of everything.
Andrew Carnegie, the great Scottish industrialist and philanthropist, thought so too — he spent the last 18 years of his life giving away the bulk of his fortune, building 2,509 libraries across the world. It was, in my opinion, one of the greatest gifts one could offer to the world.
I am leery of any kind of “transformation” clothed in doublespeak. The Oamaru Public Library is a beautiful modernist building that has housed a diverse collection of books for a long time. It offers the usual services of internet and so on — it already is a hub — libraries have been hubs for a long time.
Source post: Blackbull Research - Substack