New Zealand
The New Zealand market (NZX50, -0.6%) was down on a large volume day as investors repositioned their portfolios for month end, and close out local earnings season.
The majority of the moves look like some profit-taking on recent winners and increasing exposure into value such as the retirement sector. Building consents for the month of April continued to slide for both detached and non-detached as housing market outlook appears bleak – a similar result for residential consents declining in Australia being reported for the month of April. Fortunately, commercial consents remain robust – for now?.
Australia
The Australian market (ASX200, -1.6%) was down yesterday hitting a two-month low on the back of hot inflation print which surprised and China’s worries.
Australia’s inflation for the month of April recorded a +6.8% annual increase, up from +6.3% increase in March. The increasing pace of rental growth, though, provides good reason to be concerned about the stickiness of inflation – keeping the RBA on a tightening bias, and increase the chance of one more hike, and room for more – conditional on inflation holding up and leading far away from RBA’s target of 1% to 3%.
Weak PMI data from China, appears to have downplayed the optimism markets had anticipated from China’s reopening which saw both iron ore and oil price slip. two months of monthly decline, as weak demand from US and European economies play out.
Bank of Queensland shares were down -5.5%, after the regional bank entered voluntary enforcement by APRA to address the bank’s weakness in its risk management practices, controls, systems, governance and risk culture.
Retail conglomerate Wesfarmers CEO addressed shareholders stating “honeymoon is very much over” raising concerns of challenging period head.
He cited customers switching to value products amid the changing economic conditions, Scott also said the last few years “was also one of the only times in at least the last few decades” where “value wasn’t as important for households”. He attributed this to very high levels of accumulated savings and very low-interest rates. Another signal of tougher times ahead.
The China Question
Luxury sales defied any hint of a slow-down last quarter – Hermes and LVMH both posted double-digit gains, and LVMH’s Arnault was, for a time, the world’s richest man. Now the question is: how long can the party keep going for? Recent economic data out of China looks a little iffy – manufacturing activity showed contraction while services expansion slowed. China has long been the engine of growth for luxury – it represents roughly 30% of Burberry’s sales and a similar percent for Gucci owner Kering. It’s an interesting question, and it may lead to asymmetrical outcomes from the various luxury houses. LVMH for instance saw +24% growth in Europe, and +34% in Japan. Asia (excl. Japan) sat at just +14%. In other words, it suggests that spending growth is actually shifting away from China and LVMH are doing just fine, thank you very much. On the other hand, Burberry saw growth of just +2% in China (mainland sales declined 17%). It also saw contraction in the US – the outlook is not so rosy. It highlights the diversion between the “big” houses and the smaller single-brand houses (Ferragamo, Burberry, etc) – the giants of industry have enough ballast to continue to grow, while relying on a single brand poses a significant risk in the short term.
Something that caught our interest: NACM Credit Managers Bankruptcy Filings by Sector — more to come?
