Starbucks, Tesla, MedAdvisor

30 January 2025

NZ

Quiet on the Western front — but noting that asset sales are likely — how many times can councils keep raising rates? Would love to see Chch airport listed…

Also noting some movement in Sky TV. Like everyone else, I keep waiting to see it sold (waiting for Godot at this point).

NZ-adjacent — AllBirds now tracking at $6.18, or a market cap of about $49mn. Remember when that was the “next big thing”?? I mean, so were floppy discs…

Aus

Chemist Warehouse — Sigma reverse-merger all signed and dotted within 16 minutes — in a pub. Love it!

MedAdvisor trading deep and dirty … 0.185c… still think there is a great story here (centralisation and digitisation of health records). Trading low due to lack of insti support. Undervalued IMO.


Tesla

I mean, Elon Musk actually said this —

“I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far, not even close, maybe several times more than. Absolutely. There is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top 5 companies combined. There is a path to that”

OK cowboy! Sure.

Meanwhile, Starbucks

Remember when we were talking about Luckin’ Coffee the other day? Well — here’s Starbucks’ results hot on the heels of that. Stock up 8% on frankly pretty weak results — 8% decline in comparable sales in the US, while a +4% increase in the price of the average ticket offset it a little. This is the issue with milking the consumer — you can increases prices only so much before your consumer starts to slow down. On the other hand, the amount of money Starbucks consumers have saved on gift cards increased to $2.25bn — I think of that as future revenues for Starbucks (what else are you going to do with it?) so it’s a soft sign the consumer is intending to spend with the chain more going forward.

China remains the real weak spot, with sales declining 6% in spite of some price decreases. Luckin’ Coffee, in other words, to the moon.

Look — it’s a $100 stock at best. Most of the optimism was priced in when Mr. Chipotle became CEO. Still a lot more work to do here.

Source post: Blackbull Research - Substack

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