Here’s the yield curve. It’s been inverted for a long time! Highlighted in grey are recessions.
A selection of headlines from the last month or so.
You can take the headlines to mean two things — I mean, one might be…
We are so back, baby, Bitcoin and NVIDIA to the moon 🚀🚀🚀
Or…I don’t want to say it. I don’t want to take away your hopes and dreams. I mean, could it be — yes, it must be —
THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT
Maybe the rest of 2024 goes like this:
Report from January 2030, via WallStreetMaxSpuluHeraldTimes
Markets continued to rally as inflation shrank to 2%. Joe Biden was elected president and Nivdia soon became the biggest company in the world, worth $10 trillion zillion dollars. By 2025 Bitcoin hit 1 million dollars; by 2028 Bitcoin had replaced all currency and the New World Order, led fearlessly by Michelle Obama, had declared global peace. Everyone was microchipped and assigned “goodness” scores, and everyone did one minute of hate against Putin; the long-vanquished foe. Nobody remembered what the USD was and AI ran everything. Sam Altman became the world’s richest person.
Or I don’t know…I don’t know, you guys, maybe it looks like this headline from 2006 in the WSJ
Yes that was the outlook — and that’s what happened, right? Right?!
I mean this definitely did not happen:
No, no, that didn’t happen — obviously there was never a recession or a GFC. That’s fiction. Don’t worry kids!
Or, I don’t know, what about 1999?
I mean, this next thing did not happen, ok? Value America is currently the biggest retailer in America. Amazon who?!
Ok, glad that’s sorted.
Ok, cool, let’s keep this energy going — I’m off to buy bitcoins and some shitcoins and throw money at AI — repeat after me: THERE IS NO BUBBLE.
Got it?
