We thought BHP Billiton (BHP.AX) was oversold earlier this year during market panic & turmoil, and its share price has rallied nearly +80% since we bought it during the rout across mining stocks.
While optimism around a Trump/Republican victory is helping commodity prices at the margins, the bigger driver of late of BHP’s share price has been the price of iron ore (Australia's largest export) and a general stabilisation across the commodity complex as inflation expectations rise.
prefer to invest in the larger more efficient miners at this stage in the mining cycle. We continue to favour BHP in particular over other miners given it is highly diversified by region and commodity type, and due to its size has scale to operate at low cost with premium asset quality. Management continue to lower the company’s cost structure, eliminate underperforming assets, and tighten capital expenditure. In saying that, we believe the true turn in profitability will occur as commodity prices recover over the medium term.While the recent law suit (Samarco dam disaster) complicates the investment case, at this juncture we continue to hold BHP as our only mining holding in our Australian portfolio.
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