Will SpaceX’s insiders trigger a wave of selling? The first tranche of SpaceX insider’s shares will become unlocked this week, a couple days after the company reports its first earnings report as a publicly listed company.
SpaceX uses a phased, milestone-and-calendar tranche system. Here’s the schedule:
August 6 (Post-Q2 Earnings): 20% unlocks (~911 million shares). (An additional 10% unlocks conditionally if the stock trades above its $135 IPO price for 5 out of 10 prior trading days).
August 20, 2026 (70 Days Post-IPO): 7% unlocks (~322 million shares).
September 9, 2026 (90 Days Post-IPO): 7% unlocks (~322 million shares).
September 24, 2026 (105 Days Post-IPO): 7% unlocks (~322 million shares).
October 9, 2026 (120 Days Post-IPO): 7% unlocks (~322 million shares).
October 24, 2026 (135 Days Post-IPO): 7% unlocks (~322 million shares).
Nov 2026 (2 days after Q3 Earnings): 28% unlocks (~1.3 billion shares—the largest single-day chunk).
December 8, 2026 (180-Day Full Expiry): Remaining ~24% unlocks (all remaining Track 1 shares become free-trading).
Importantly, an unlock does not mean that every eligible shareholder will immediately sell. It only removes the restrictions preventing those shares from being sold.
What could this mean for the stock price?
At listing, less than 5% of SpaceX’s total equity was floated. That scarcity was a primary driver behind the post-IPO pop toward $225. When the first unlock hits, the tradable share count will more than double overnight. By November, the tradable share count will be eight times the original IPO float.
When supply expands into a market where buying demand has already settled post-IPO euphoria, the price falling is a likely outcome (although not a certainty).
Will insiders actually sell?
If insiders also believe the current valuation is out of step with reality, many may choose to sell as soon as they are permitted. Early employees sitting on 10x to 20x gains might not care that SPCX has dropped from its record high above $200 per share. $50 per share would still be life-changing money for most.
However, Elon Musk understands how powerful his public statements can be in shaping investor sentiment. If the share price comes under pressure around the unlocks, it wouldn’t be surprising to see another bold announcement, ambitious timeline or grand vision dominate the headlines. Whether it’s a breakthrough in Starship, a new government contract, or another futuristic project, the market has often rewarded the narrative long before the fundamentals catch up. Thus, some insiders may decide it’s worth waiting for the next wave of optimism before selling.
There is also the possibility that insiders genuinely believe the company has meaningful catalysts ahead. Even relatively modest announcements, such as progress towards space-based data centres, could be enough to reignite investor enthusiasm. In that environment, some insiders may conclude that patience offers a better exit than selling into the first unlock.
From the desk of M.O
Source post: Blackbull Research - Substack