Let’s get the big stuff out the way quickly — the Japanese stock market (the Topix) fell the most in one day since 1987’s Black Monday, the ASX sold off in turn, and then the NASDAQ sold off 3.43% while the S&P sold of 3.00%. For perspective, that’s the biggest American sell-off in two years. Golly gosh!
I wrote in early March that we were due for a sell off. See below.
At the time people were either like — we agree, or — you are so silly, Eden! Stocks only go up!!! Bitcoins to the moon!
Anyway, I mean — stocks don’t only go up, I guess? Here’s a sea of red…
I am not going to postulate as to why —rather, I’m going to make a shopping list for you of things I think are “interesting” at these prices. These aren’t buy or sell recommendations; these are merely ideas postulated by a monkey at a keyboard, whose favourite meal is pork chops with sauce au poivre1 — trade at your own risk!
BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL — Daddy Buffett
Part 1: Obvious contenders for the shopping list that are in the US
Visa, Mastercard (V, MA). They both are the world’s dominant payment networks — they take 0.25% of every transaction. They are inflation agnostic — a percentage of the pie is a percentage of the pie. They still have the shift in cash-heavy countries to digitisation, as well as a growing B2B market. They are “own forever” stocks.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) — Down -3.42% and sitting on a cash pile of $277 billion. That’s more t-bills than held by the Fed. Well positioned to go out shopping and take advantage of a sell off.
Nike (NKE) — I think has hit max pessimism. Don’t like management, don’t like the product right now, so it’s a bet on a turnaround. Looking at the track record I don’t think that’s impossible at all…but they need to get a dad shoe out there! Need to own it with a 2 year view at least…
McDonald’s — 22x earnings, global brand, always loved.
Part 2: Less obvious
Snapchat (SNAP) — Trading at $8.00 or so, near 52 week lows. I think you can do (I’m not suggesting you do, mind you) a rinse-and-repeat — buy cheap, sell in the mid-teens, and do it again. People still keep using Snap — ask your teenagers or 20 year old friends.
Verisign (VRSN) — Monopolistic company which handles registration for both .com and .net. 21x earnings. Berkshire holding.
Uranium (buy it anyway; we prefer URNM etf) — sold off like the clappers but the core thesis hasn’t changed. The world needs more energy. There is more demand for uranium than there is supply, which creates an imbalance. Should continue until 2028.
Part 3: Stocks in ‘Straya
Most of these are very speccy at also illiquid — go in at your own risk! But the first isn’t illiquid at all —
Xero — Fell about 5% y’day. Hardly ever moves like this. In my view Xero is the best at what they do — once I found myself stuck with all these accountants who had just been to Xerocon, which is like Burning Man for nerds who are good at numbers. They couldn’t get enough of it!
MedAdvisor (MDR) — down about 9.90% y’day. Digitising disparate medical records; big contract wins recently. It’s a small cap…so…
Droneshield (DRO) — After a stellar run it’s back down to around $1.00. Good time to take the money you made from selling DRO at the top (I hope) and buy in again… note co is undertaking another cap raise…
Avita (AVH) — Spray-on skin product that uses your own cells to regrow said skin — has FDA approval. Prior to sell-off was trading around $3.00.
Part 3: Japan
Nintendo (7974) — Sold off -16.53% y’day… 15x earnings. You have i) the imminent arrival of the Switch 2 and a universe of valuable IP (Smash Bros, Mario, Zelda…). Think of Nintendo as an entertainment company in the vein of Disney, rather than a video game company. You get the idea…
Maruwa (5344) — A porcelain company that began making ceramics for computing hardware and chips in the 70s. Porcelain has particularly good cooling qualities, which is increasingly more important in data centres running GPUs. Stock down –26% or so on the month. A fun, weird one…
Part 4: NZ
Throw a dart at any mid or small cap. Take your pick. They’re all on sale. Or just buy MFT… every time I drive past the Mainfreight warehouse near the airport I get a smile on my face…
A few suggestions: MFT, AOF, SKL, TWR…
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Preheat oven to 180 or so. Place pork chop on a plate; stab it with a sharp knife a few times. Flip pork, and pierce opposite side the same way. Press salt and peppercorn blend evenly onto both sides — you want to be very liberal with this. Don’t skimp!
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Heat oil in a 10-inch ovenproof skillet over high. Add pork chop; cook until browned, about 3 minutes per side. You want colour here. Nobody wants an anemic pork chop. Transfer skillet with pork to preheated oven. Roast for about 10 minutes.
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Remove skillet from oven; transfer pork to a plate or carving board. Return skillet to heat over medium; add 1 tablespoon butter, and let melt. Add shallot; cook, stirring occasionally, until aromatic and translucent, about 1 minute — the shallot should be giving and tender by this point. Add red wine; bring to a simmer over medium. Simmer, undisturbed, until reduced by half, about 3 minutes. Add remaining 2 tablespoons butter; remove from heat, and swirl skillet until butter is melted and emulsified into sauce. Carve pork; serve with sauce and some potatoes perhaps.